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Thes Sport vs Spouwen-Mopertingen — League #487 2026

Thes Sport
Thes Sport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spouwen-Mopertingen
Spouwen-Mopertingen
C. Mateso-Liongola 9'
F. Vandecaetsbeek 26'
10/3/2025League #487League #487 · VV - 6Gemeentelijk Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Thes Sport42%
×Draw28%
Spouwen-Mopertingen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thes Sport
1.25
Spouwen-Mopertingen
1.00

Thes Sport creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Thes Sport
1.50
Spouwen-Mopertingen
0.83

allows per match

Thes Sport
1.17
Spouwen-Mopertingen
1.00

finishing

Thes Sport+0.00on par
Spouwen-Mopertingen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thes Sport ↓

Spouwen-Mopertingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Thes Sport or draw
70%
Thes Sport or Spouwen-Mopertingen
72%
Draw or Spouwen-Mopertingen
58%

Winning margin

Thes Sport wins by 2+
19%
Spouwen-Mopertingen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Thes Sport 1+ goals
71%
Thes Sport 2+ goals
36%
Thes Sport 3+ goals
13%
Spouwen-Mopertingen 1+ goals
63%
Spouwen-Mopertingen 2+ goals
26%
Spouwen-Mopertingen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Thes Sport (draw refunded)
59%
Spouwen-Mopertingen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thes Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Spouwen-Mopertingen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thes Sport attack 1.50 + Spouwen-Mopertingen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Spouwen-Mopertingen attack 0.83 + Thes Sport defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thes Sport scores more
42%
level
28%
Spouwen-Mopertingen scores more
30%

Thes Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thes Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
C. Mateso-Liongola
26'
F. Vandecaetsbeek
Thes
Spouwen-Mopertingen
J. Lauryssen
Manager: J. Lauryssen
M. Licata
Manager: M. Licata

Match Recap: Thes Sport vs Spouwen-Mopertingen

Thes Sport and Spouwen-Mopertingen drew 1-1 in League #487 on October 3, 2025.

Goals: C. Mateso-Liongola (9'), F. Vandecaetsbeek (26').

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Sportpark in Tessenderlo.