Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–1 Thes Sport: Result & Stats

Spouwen-Mopertingen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Thes Sport

9/27/2024

League #487 · VV - 5Sportpark Katteberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Spouwen-Mopertingen38%

×Draw24%

Thes Sport38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spouwen-MopertingenExpected goals in this matchThes Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.53

Spouwen-Mopertingen

1.52

Thes Sport

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.73

1.33

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Spouwen-Mopertingen

1.50

Thes Sport

1.73

allows per match

Spouwen-Mopertingen

1.33

Thes Sport

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spouwen-Mopertingen+0.00on par

Thes Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spouwen-Mopertingen ↓

Thes Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw

62%

Spouwen-Mopertingen or Thes Sport

76%

Draw or Thes Sport

62%

Winning margin

Spouwen-Mopertingen wins by 2+

18%

Thes Sport wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Spouwen-Mopertingen 1+ goals

78%

Spouwen-Mopertingen 2+ goals

45%

Spouwen-Mopertingen 3+ goals

20%

Thes Sport 1+ goals

78%

Thes Sport 2+ goals

45%

Thes Sport 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Spouwen-Mopertingen (draw refunded)

50%

Thes Sport (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spouwen-Mopertingen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Thes Sport away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spouwen-Mopertingen attack 1.50 + Thes Sport defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Thes Sport attack 1.73 + Spouwen-Mopertingen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spouwen-Mopertingen scores more

38%

level

24%

Thes Sport scores more

38%

Spouwen-Mopertingen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spouwen-Mopertingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff