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Thes Sport vs Cercle Brugge II — League #487 2026

Thes Sport
Thes Sport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cercle Brugge II
Cercle Brugge II
F. Fall 55'
J. Obambi 90'
11/9/2025League #487League #487 · VV - 11Gemeentelijk Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Thes Sport39%
×Draw26%
Cercle Brugge II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thes Sport
1.35
Cercle Brugge II
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Thes Sport
1.50
Cercle Brugge II
1.40

allows per match

Thes Sport
1.17
Cercle Brugge II
1.20

finishing

Thes Sport+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thes Sport ↓

Cercle Brugge II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Thes Sport or draw
65%
Thes Sport or Cercle Brugge II
74%
Draw or Cercle Brugge II
61%

Winning margin

Thes Sport wins by 2+
18%
Cercle Brugge II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Thes Sport 1+ goals
74%
Thes Sport 2+ goals
39%
Thes Sport 3+ goals
15%
Cercle Brugge II 1+ goals
72%
Cercle Brugge II 2+ goals
37%
Cercle Brugge II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Thes Sport (draw refunded)
52%
Cercle Brugge II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thes Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Cercle Brugge II away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thes Sport attack 1.50 + Cercle Brugge II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cercle Brugge II attack 1.40 + Thes Sport defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thes Sport scores more
39%
level
26%
Cercle Brugge II scores more
35%

Thes Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Thes Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
F. Fall
87'
M. Keulen
87'
M. Keulen
90'
J. Obambi
Thes
Cercle
J. Lauryssen
Manager: J. Lauryssen
D. Waeytens
Manager: D. Waeytens

League #487: Thes Sport 1–1 Cercle Brugge II

Thes Sport and Cercle Brugge II drew 1-1 in League #487 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: F. Fall (55'), J. Obambi (90').

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Sportpark in Tessenderlo.