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Cercle Brugge II vs Thes Sport — League #487 2026

Cercle Brugge II
Cercle Brugge II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Thes Sport
Thes Sport
V. Martens 54'
F. Fall 16'
2/13/2026League #487League #487 · VV - 17Complex KSV Oostkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cercle Brugge II20%
×Draw21%
Thes Sport59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge II
1.15
Thes Sport
2.12

Thes Sport creates 84% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge II
0.75
Thes Sport
1.73

allows per match

Cercle Brugge II
2.50
Thes Sport
1.55

finishing

Cercle Brugge II+0.00on par
Thes Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge II ↓

Thes Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge II or draw
41%
Cercle Brugge II or Thes Sport
79%
Draw or Thes Sport
80%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge II wins by 2+
8%
Thes Sport wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge II 1+ goals
68%
Cercle Brugge II 2+ goals
32%
Cercle Brugge II 3+ goals
11%
Thes Sport 1+ goals
88%
Thes Sport 2+ goals
62%
Thes Sport 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge II (draw refunded)
25%
Thes Sport (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge II at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Thes Sport away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge II attack 0.75 + Thes Sport defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.15

Thes Sport attack 1.73 + Cercle Brugge II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cercle Brugge II scores more
20%
level
21%
Thes Sport scores more
59%

Thes Sport at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Thes Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
F. Fall
54'
V. Martens
Cercle
Thes
D. Waeytens
Manager: D. Waeytens
J. Lauryssen
Manager: J. Lauryssen

League #487: Cercle Brugge II 1–1 Thes Sport

Cercle Brugge II and Thes Sport drew 1-1 in League #487 on February 13, 2026.

Goals: F. Fall (16'), V. Martens (54').

The match was played at Complex KSV Oostkamp in Oostkamp.