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The Villages vs FC Florida II — USL League Two 2018

The Villages
The Villages
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Florida II
FC Florida II
6/4/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 24The Villages SC Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

The Villages72%
×Draw17%
FC Florida II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Villages
2.31
FC Florida II
0.74

The Villages creates 212% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 12 away

creates per match

The Villages
2.80
FC Florida II
0.67

allows per match

The Villages
0.80
FC Florida II
1.83

finishing

The Villages+0.00on par
FC Florida II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Villages ↓

FC Florida II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

The Villages or draw
90%
The Villages or FC Florida II
83%
Draw or FC Florida II
28%

Winning margin

The Villages wins by 2+
49%
FC Florida II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

The Villages 1+ goals
90%
The Villages 2+ goals
67%
The Villages 3+ goals
40%
FC Florida II 1+ goals
52%
FC Florida II 2+ goals
17%
FC Florida II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

The Villages (draw refunded)
87%
FC Florida II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Villages at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

FC Florida II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Villages attack 2.80 + FC Florida II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.31

FC Florida II attack 0.67 + The Villages defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

The Villages scores more
72%
level
17%
FC Florida II scores more
10%

The Villages at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: The Villages vs FC Florida II

The Villages beat FC Florida II 2-0 in USL League Two on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at The Villages SC Complex in Summerfield.