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FC Florida II vs The Villages — USL League Two 2018

FC Florida II
FC Florida II
FT
0 – 1
The Villages
The Villages
5/26/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 11Club Med Sandpiper Bay Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Florida II22%
×Draw25%
The Villages54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Florida II
0.94
The Villages
1.64

The Villages creates 74% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Florida II
1.08
The Villages
1.52

allows per match

FC Florida II
1.75
The Villages
0.79

finishing

FC Florida II+0.00on par
The Villages+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Florida II ↓

The Villages →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Florida II or draw
46%
FC Florida II or The Villages
75%
Draw or The Villages
78%

Winning margin

FC Florida II wins by 2+
7%
The Villages wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

FC Florida II 1+ goals
61%
FC Florida II 2+ goals
24%
FC Florida II 3+ goals
7%
The Villages 1+ goals
81%
The Villages 2+ goals
49%
The Villages 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Florida II (draw refunded)
29%
The Villages (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Florida II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

The Villages away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Florida II attack 1.08 + The Villages defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

The Villages attack 1.52 + FC Florida II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Florida II scores more
22%
level
25%
The Villages scores more
54%

The Villages at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Florida II 0 – 1 The Villages

The Villages beat FC Florida II 1-0 in USL League Two on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Club Med Sandpiper Bay Soccer Field in Port St. Lucie, Florida.