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The Villages vs Caledonia — USL League Two 2018

The Villages
The Villages
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Caledonia
Caledonia
7/16/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 75The Villages SC Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

The Villages82%
×Draw12%
Caledonia6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Villages
2.97
Caledonia
0.69

The Villages creates 330% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 7 away

creates per match

The Villages
2.80
Caledonia
0.57

allows per match

The Villages
0.80
Caledonia
3.14

finishing

The Villages+0.00on par
Caledonia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Villages ↓

Caledonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

The Villages or draw
94%
The Villages or Caledonia
88%
Draw or Caledonia
18%

Winning margin

The Villages wins by 2+
63%
Caledonia wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

The Villages 1+ goals
95%
The Villages 2+ goals
79%
The Villages 3+ goals
56%
Caledonia 1+ goals
50%
Caledonia 2+ goals
15%
Caledonia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

The Villages (draw refunded)
93%
Caledonia (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Villages at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Caledonia away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Villages attack 2.80 + Caledonia defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.97

Caledonia attack 0.57 + The Villages defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

The Villages scores more
82%
level
12%
Caledonia scores more
6%

The Villages at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: The Villages 3–2 Caledonia

The Villages beat Caledonia 3-2 in USL League Two on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at The Villages SC Complex in Summerfield.