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Caledonia vs The Villages — USL League Two 2018

Caledonia
Caledonia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
The Villages
The Villages
6/1/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 20Moccasin Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Caledonia13%
×Draw25%
The Villages63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonia
0.56
The Villages
1.59

The Villages creates 184% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 42 away

creates per match

Caledonia
0.33
The Villages
1.52

allows per match

Caledonia
1.67
The Villages
0.79

finishing

Caledonia+0.00on par
The Villages+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonia ↓

The Villages →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–119%
0–215%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Caledonia or draw
37%
Caledonia or The Villages
75%
Draw or The Villages
87%

Winning margin

Caledonia wins by 2+
3%
The Villages wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Caledonia 1+ goals
43%
Caledonia 2+ goals
11%
Caledonia 3+ goals
2%
The Villages 1+ goals
80%
The Villages 2+ goals
47%
The Villages 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Caledonia (draw refunded)
17%
The Villages (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonia at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

The Villages away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonia attack 0.33 + The Villages defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.56

The Villages attack 1.52 + Caledonia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Caledonia scores more
13%
level
25%
The Villages scores more
63%

The Villages at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caledonia vs The Villages

The Villages beat Caledonia 2-0 in USL League Two on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Moccasin Field in Lakeland, Florida.