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The Town vs Real Monarchs — MLS Next Pro 2022

The Town
The Town
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
8/28/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 32PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

The Town62%
×Draw20%
Real Monarchs18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Town
2.18
Real Monarchs
1.07

The Town creates 104% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 49 away

creates per match

The Town
2.22
Real Monarchs
1.16

allows per match

The Town
0.98
Real Monarchs
2.14

finishing

The Town+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Town ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

The Town or draw
82%
The Town or Real Monarchs
80%
Draw or Real Monarchs
38%

Winning margin

The Town wins by 2+
39%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

The Town 1+ goals
89%
The Town 2+ goals
64%
The Town 3+ goals
37%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
66%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
29%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

The Town (draw refunded)
78%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Town at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.14 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Town attack 2.22 + Real Monarchs defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.18

Real Monarchs attack 1.16 + The Town defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

The Town scores more
62%
level
20%
Real Monarchs scores more
18%

The Town at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: The Town vs Real Monarchs

The Town and Real Monarchs drew 0-0 in MLS Next Pro on August 28, 2025.

The match was played at PayPal Park.