Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Monarchs vs The Town — MLS Next Pro 2022

Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
The Town
The Town
4/11/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 6Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Real Monarchs36%
×Draw23%
The Town41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monarchs
1.59
The Town
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 54 away

creates per match

Real Monarchs
1.72
The Town
1.80

allows per match

Real Monarchs
1.58
The Town
1.46

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par
The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

The Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw
59%
Real Monarchs or The Town
77%
Draw or The Town
64%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+
18%
The Town wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals
80%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
47%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
21%
The Town 1+ goals
82%
The Town 2+ goals
50%
The Town 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
47%
The Town (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.72 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

The Town attack 1.80 + Real Monarchs defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Monarchs scores more
36%
level
23%
The Town scores more
41%

The Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Real Monarchs 2–1 The Town

Real Monarchs beat The Town 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium.