The Town 0–2 Austin II: Result & Stats

The Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Austin II

8/13/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 30St. Mary’s College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

The Town50%

×Draw24%

Austin II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The TownExpected goals in this matchAustin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

The Town

1.71

Austin II

1.15

The Town creates 49% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

2.22

creates per match

1.31

0.98

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

The Town

2.22

Austin II

1.31

allows per match

The Town

0.98

Austin II

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Town+0.00on par

Austin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Town ↓

Austin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

The Town or draw

74%

The Town or Austin II

76%

Draw or Austin II

50%

Winning margin

The Town wins by 2+

27%

Austin II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

The Town 1+ goals

82%

The Town 2+ goals

51%

The Town 3+ goals

24%

Austin II 1+ goals

68%

Austin II 2+ goals

32%

Austin II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

The Town (draw refunded)

66%

Austin II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Town at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Austin II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Town attack 2.22 + Austin II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Austin II attack 1.31 + The Town defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

The Town scores more

50%

level

24%

Austin II scores more

26%

The Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff