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Austin II vs The Town — MLS Next Pro 2022

Austin II
Austin II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
The Town
The Town
5/20/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 11Parmer Field at St. David’s Performance Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Austin II44%
×Draw23%
The Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin II
1.78
The Town
1.52

Austin II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

creates per match

Austin II
2.11
The Town
1.80

allows per match

Austin II
1.24
The Town
1.46

finishing

Austin II+0.00on par
The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin II ↓

The Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Austin II or draw
67%
Austin II or The Town
77%
Draw or The Town
56%

Winning margin

Austin II wins by 2+
23%
The Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Austin II 1+ goals
83%
Austin II 2+ goals
53%
Austin II 3+ goals
26%
The Town 1+ goals
78%
The Town 2+ goals
45%
The Town 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Austin II (draw refunded)
57%
The Town (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin II at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin II attack 2.11 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.78

The Town attack 1.80 + Austin II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Austin II scores more
44%
level
23%
The Town scores more
33%

Austin II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Austin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austin II vs The Town

The Town beat Austin II 1-0 in MLS Next Pro on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Parmer Field at St. David’s Performance Center in Austin, Texas.