The Strongest 2–0 Real Tomayapo: Result & Stats

The Strongest

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Tomayapo

12/10/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 27Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

The Strongest69%

×Draw18%

Real Tomayapo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The StrongestExpected goals in this matchReal Tomayapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.90

The Strongest

2.35

Real Tomayapo

0.90

The Strongest creates 161% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 89 away

2.77

creates per match

0.88

0.92

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

The Strongest

2.77

Real Tomayapo

0.88

allows per match

The Strongest

0.92

Real Tomayapo

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Real Tomayapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw

87%

The Strongest or Real Tomayapo

82%

Draw or Real Tomayapo

31%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+

46%

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals

90%

The Strongest 2+ goals

68%

The Strongest 3+ goals

41%

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

59%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

23%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)

84%

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.92 · 133 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.94 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 2.77 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.35

Real Tomayapo attack 0.88 + The Strongest defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

The Strongest scores more

69%

level

18%

Real Tomayapo scores more

13%

The Strongest at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff