Real Tomayapo 2–0 The Strongest: Result & Stats

Real Tomayapo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

The Strongest

8/18/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo38%

×Draw26%

The Strongest36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.31

Real Tomayapo

1.35

The Strongest

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 132 away

1.37

creates per match

1.60

1.01

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.37

The Strongest

1.60

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

1.01

The Strongest

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

64%

Real Tomayapo or The Strongest

74%

Draw or The Strongest

62%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

17%

The Strongest wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

74%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

39%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

15%

The Strongest 1+ goals

73%

The Strongest 2+ goals

38%

The Strongest 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

51%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + The Strongest defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

38%

level

26%

The Strongest scores more

36%

Real Tomayapo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff