The Strongest 2–1 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

The Strongest

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Oruro

A. Quiroga 57'

J. Arrascaita 16'

S. Zeballos 53'

11/22/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 25Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

The Strongest68%

×Draw17%

Real Oruro15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The StrongestExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.17

The Strongest

2.60

Real Oruro

1.17

The Strongest creates 122% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 21 away

2.77

creates per match

1.43

0.91

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

The Strongest

2.77

Real Oruro

1.43

allows per match

The Strongest

0.91

Real Oruro

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw

85%

The Strongest or Real Oruro

83%

Draw or Real Oruro

32%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+

46%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals

92%

The Strongest 2+ goals

73%

The Strongest 3+ goals

47%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

69%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

33%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)

82%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.91 · 132 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 2.77 + Real Oruro defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.60

Real Oruro attack 1.43 + The Strongest defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

The Strongest scores more

68%

level

17%

Real Oruro scores more

15%

The Strongest at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

S. Zeballos

Real Oruro · F

7.9

Match Events

16'

J. Arrascaita

29'

Jaime Arrascaita

46'

R. Orihuela← L. Ali

46'

S. Zeballos← R. Cuellar Orti

53'

S. Zeballos

57'

A. Quiroga↳ J. Amoroso

65'

Andrés Chávez

66'

Jairo Thomas

66'

D. Fernandez← E. Alvarez

66'

67'

71'

77'

77'

78'

A. F. Bravo Adan← J. Thomas

89'

Joel Amoroso

90+1'

Jhon Jairo Villegas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TheReal

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots11

5Corners6

10Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target3

7Off Target7

4Blocked1

11Inside Box3

7Outside Box8

Passing

58%Possession42%

307Total Passes222

230Accurate Passes144

75%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Primera División: The Strongest 2–1 Real Oruro

The Strongest beat Real Oruro 2-1 in Primera División on November 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Arrascaita (16'), S. Zeballos (53'), A. Quiroga (57').

The Strongest controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.

The Strongest vs Real Oruro — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: The Strongest 2–1 Real Oruro