Real Oruro 1–2 The Strongest: Result & Stats

Real Oruro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

The Strongest

S. Zeballos 42' (pen)

E. Triverio 73'

A. Quiroga 67'

6/14/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Real Oruro42%

×Draw22%

The Strongest36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real OruroExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.79

Real Oruro

1.94

The Strongest

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 134 away

2.57

creates per match

1.58

2.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Real Oruro

2.57

The Strongest

1.58

allows per match

Real Oruro

2.00

The Strongest

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oruro+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oruro ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Real Oruro or draw

64%

Real Oruro or The Strongest

78%

Draw or The Strongest

58%

Winning margin

Real Oruro wins by 2+

23%

The Strongest wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Real Oruro 1+ goals

86%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

58%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

30%

The Strongest 1+ goals

83%

The Strongest 2+ goals

53%

The Strongest 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

54%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oruro at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.31 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oruro attack 2.57 + The Strongest defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.94

The Strongest attack 1.58 + Real Oruro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Oruro scores more

42%

level

22%

The Strongest scores more

36%

Real Oruro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Oruro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

A. Jusino

41'

R. Cuellar Orti

42'

S. ZeballosPenalty

46'

J. Godoy← M. Chiatti

50'

D. Valdivia← L. Banegas

52'

W. Velasco← J. Thomas

67'

A. Quiroga↳ J. Amoroso

72'

Y. Vallejos← R. Cuellar Orti

73'

E. Triverio↳ J. Amoroso

77'

79'

85'

86'

86'

T. Moriceau← J. Garcia

90'

S. Altamirano

90+7'

T. Moriceau

Real

The

1

▼

Banegas

3

Pedraza

4

▼

Chiatti

7

A

Amoroso

20

▼

Garcia

35

▼

Lino

5

Jusino

6

⚽

Quiroga

23

▼

Chura

32

Altamiran

11

⚽

Triverio

1

Zamora

23

Villegas

97

▼

18

28

2

27

⚽

Zeballos

6

▼

77

10

11

Manager: Juan Marcelo Robledo Pizarro

52'▲W. Velasco←▼J. Thomas

72'▲Y. Vallejos←▼R. Cuellar Orti

Real Oruro substitutes

25Terceros5Alessandrini30Prieto17Ortiz21Moreira15Salvatierra8Velasco26Calle19Vallejos

Manager: Joaquín Monasterio

46'▲J. Godoy←▼M. Chiatti

50'▲D. Valdivia←▼L. Banegas

77'▲L. Lopez←▼J. Chura

85'▲M. Somoya←▼D. Lino

86'▲T. Moriceau←▼J. Garcia

The Strongest substitutes

12Valdivia9Guerrero15Yanarico16Moriceau17Lopez18Flores21Quaglio22Godoy25Somoya28Ayarza34Melgar44Supayabe