The Strongest 2–0 Oriente Petrolero: Result & Stats

The Strongest

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oriente Petrolero

9/29/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 23Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

The Strongest69%

×Draw18%

Oriente Petrolero13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The StrongestExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.94

The Strongest

2.38

Oriente Petrolero

0.94

The Strongest creates 153% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

The Strongest

1.75

Oriente Petrolero

0.75

allows per match

The Strongest

1.13

Oriente Petrolero

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw

87%

The Strongest or Oriente Petrolero

82%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

31%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+

46%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals

91%

The Strongest 2+ goals

68%

The Strongest 3+ goals

42%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

61%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

24%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)

84%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 1.75 + Oriente Petrolero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Oriente Petrolero attack 0.75 + The Strongest defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

The Strongest scores more

69%

level

18%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

13%

The Strongest at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff