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The Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

The Strongest
The Strongest
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
D. Lom 67'
J. Arrascaita 11'
J. Flores 23'
7/16/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

The Strongest65%
×Draw19%
Oriente Petrolero17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Strongest
2.37
Oriente Petrolero
1.13

The Strongest creates 110% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

The Strongest
1.60
Oriente Petrolero
0.86

allows per match

The Strongest
1.40
Oriente Petrolero
3.14

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par
Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Oriente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw
83%
The Strongest or Oriente Petrolero
81%
Draw or Oriente Petrolero
35%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+
42%
Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals
91%
The Strongest 2+ goals
68%
The Strongest 3+ goals
42%
Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
68%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
31%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)
79%
Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Oriente Petrolero defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.37

Oriente Petrolero attack 0.86 + The Strongest defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

The Strongest scores more
65%
level
19%
Oriente Petrolero scores more
17%

The Strongest at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
J. Arrascaita
23'
J. Flores↳ J. Lovera
26'
J. Flores
34'
L. Vaca
35'
D. Lom
48'
A. Pena
65'
M. Reyes Rojas← F. Gonzales Mejia
65'
G. Sotomayor← K. F. Salvatierra Flores
67'
D. Lom↳ R. Castro
68'
J. Arrascaita
75'
D. Lom
75'
D. Lom
82'
M. Velasco← M. Velasco
82'
J. Bernal← A. W. Torrez Suarez
90+1'
C. Saucedo← M. Reyes Rojas
90+5'
K. Adin Chacon Arrascayta
90+9'
V. Cuellar← A. Estacio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: The Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero

The Strongest beat Oriente Petrolero 2-1 in Primera División on July 16, 2026.

Goals: J. Arrascaita (11'), J. Flores (23'), D. Lom (67').

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.