The Strongest 6–0 Jorge Wilstermann: Result & Stats

The Strongest

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jorge Wilstermann

12/14/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 30Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

The Strongest63%

×Draw20%

Jorge Wilstermann17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The StrongestExpected goals in this matchJorge Wilstermann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.02

The Strongest

2.15

Jorge Wilstermann

1.02

The Strongest creates 111% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 123 away

2.77

creates per match

1.12

0.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

The Strongest

2.77

Jorge Wilstermann

1.12

allows per match

The Strongest

0.92

Jorge Wilstermann

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw

83%

The Strongest or Jorge Wilstermann

80%

Draw or Jorge Wilstermann

37%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+

39%

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals

88%

The Strongest 2+ goals

63%

The Strongest 3+ goals

36%

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

64%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

27%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)

79%

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.92 · 133 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 2.77 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.15

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + The Strongest defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

The Strongest scores more

63%

level

20%

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

17%

The Strongest at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff