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Jorge Wilstermann vs The Strongest — Primera División 2026

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
The Strongest
The Strongest
5/19/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann41%
×Draw25%
The Strongest34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
1.53
The Strongest
1.37

Jorge Wilstermann creates 12% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 132 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
The Strongest
1.60

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
The Strongest
1.32

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

The Strongest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
66%
Jorge Wilstermann or The Strongest
75%
Draw or The Strongest
59%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
20%
The Strongest wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
78%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
45%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
20%
The Strongest 1+ goals
75%
The Strongest 2+ goals
40%
The Strongest 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
55%
The Strongest (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + The Strongest defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
41%
level
25%
The Strongest scores more
34%

Jorge Wilstermann at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jorge Wilstermann vs The Strongest

Jorge Wilstermann and The Strongest drew 0-0 in Primera División on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.