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The Strongest vs Bahia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

The Strongest
The Strongest
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bahia
Bahia
S. Guerrero 38'
Willian Jose 69'
2/19/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

The Strongest56%
×Draw29%
Bahia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Strongest
1.33
Bahia
0.55

The Strongest creates 142% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

The Strongest
1.83
Bahia
0.50

allows per match

The Strongest
0.61
Bahia
0.83

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw
85%
The Strongest or Bahia
71%
Draw or Bahia
44%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+
27%
Bahia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals
74%
The Strongest 2+ goals
38%
The Strongest 3+ goals
15%
Bahia 1+ goals
42%
Bahia 2+ goals
11%
Bahia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)
78%
Bahia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 1.83 + Bahia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bahia attack 0.50 + The Strongest defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

The Strongest scores more
56%
level
29%
Bahia scores more
15%

The Strongest at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. BanegasThe StrongestThe Strongest · G
8.9

Match Events

6'
L. Ursino
18'
Ademir
38'
S. Guerrero↳ J. Amoroso
46'
Willian Jose← Ademir
46'
Luciano Juba← Gilberto
60'
A. Jusino
67'
L. Lopez← Castro
67'
Cauly← Everton Ribeiro
67'
Rodrigo← Jean Lucas
69'
Willian Jose
78'
J. Garcia← S. Guerrero
85'
Michel Araujo← Erick Pulga
88'
M. Chiatti← F. Supayabe
90+1'
Caio Alexandre

Possession

33%The

Shots

13The

Pass accuracy

47%The

Statistics

TheBahia
Overview
33%Possession67%
13Total Shots21
1.23Expected Goals (xG)2.10
9Corners4
8Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots21
6On Target9
5Off Target7
2Blocked5
10Inside Box13
3Outside Box8
Passing
33%Possession67%
235Total Passes538
190Accurate Passes485
81%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
9Saves5
0.74Goals Prevented0.74
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
4Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: The Strongest 1–1 Bahia

The Strongest and Bahia drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 19, 2025.

Goals: S. Guerrero (38'), Willian Jose (69').

Bahia controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.