Bahia 3–0 The Strongest: Result & Stats

Bahia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

The Strongest

Ademir 63', 48'

L. Rodriguez 41' (pen)

2/26/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundArena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bahia72%

×Draw20%

The Strongest9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahiaExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.49

Bahia

1.91

The Strongest

0.49

Bahia creates 290% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

1.40

creates per match

0.18

0.80

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Bahia

1.40

The Strongest

0.18

allows per match

Bahia

0.80

The Strongest

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bahia or draw

91%

Bahia or The Strongest

80%

Draw or The Strongest

28%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+

45%

The Strongest wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals

85%

Bahia 2+ goals

57%

Bahia 3+ goals

30%

The Strongest 1+ goals

39%

The Strongest 2+ goals

9%

The Strongest 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)

89%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

The Strongest away — creates 0.18, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 1.40 + The Strongest defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.91

The Strongest attack 0.18 + Bahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bahia scores more

72%

level

20%

The Strongest scores more

9%

Bahia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Ademir

The Strongest

9.3

Match Events

3'

J. Arrascaita

34'

Kanu

38'

M. Chiatti

41'

L. RodriguezPenalty

42'

F. Supayabe

45'

A. Jusino

46'

Gilberto← Kanu

48'

Ademir↳ Erick Pulga

63'

Ademir↳ Erick Pulga

65'

Michel Araujo← Erick Pulga

65'

Cauly← Everton Ribeiro

74'

Kayky← Ademir

75'

A. Quiroga← Castro

75'

J. Flores← S. Guerrero

77'

Willian Jose← L. Rodriguez

89'

J. Garcia← J. Amoroso

90'

M. Somoya← J. Arrascaita

90'

J. Godoy← E. Triverio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BahiaThe

Overview

72%Possession28%

23Total Shots3

3.52Expected Goals (xG)0.24

5Corners3

6Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots3

8On Target0

6Off Target2

9Blocked1

18Inside Box3

5Outside Box0

Passing

72%Possession28%

592Total Passes222

536Accurate Passes158

91%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

0.13Goals Prevented0.13

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0