The New Saints 1–1 Swift Hesperange: Result & Stats

The New Saints

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swift Hesperange

R. Holden 74'

Simão Martins 14'

7/25/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundPark Hall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

The New Saints56%

×Draw26%

Swift Hesperange18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The New SaintsExpected goals in this matchSwift Hesperange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.74

The New Saints

1.53

Swift Hesperange

0.74

The New Saints creates 107% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

0.67

0.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

The New Saints

1.40

Swift Hesperange

0.67

allows per match

The New Saints

0.80

Swift Hesperange

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The New Saints+0.00on par

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The New Saints ↓

Swift Hesperange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

The New Saints or draw

82%

The New Saints or Swift Hesperange

74%

Draw or Swift Hesperange

44%

Winning margin

The New Saints wins by 2+

29%

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

The New Saints 1+ goals

78%

The New Saints 2+ goals

45%

The New Saints 3+ goals

20%

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

52%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

17%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

The New Saints (draw refunded)

76%

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The New Saints at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The New Saints attack 1.40 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Swift Hesperange attack 0.67 + The New Saints defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

The New Saints scores more

56%

level

26%

Swift Hesperange scores more

18%

The New Saints at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "The New Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Simão Martins

26'

Jaime← A. Skenderovic

56'

Josh Pask

58'

D. McManus← R. Brobbel

58'

D. Williams← B. Clark

58'

R. Alioui← P. Ayongo

64'

Clement Couturier

68'

L. Correia← D. Sinani

68'

68'

71'

74'

76'

87'

89'

90+6'

Statistics

TheSwift

Overview

8Corners4

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3