Swift Hesperange 3–2 The New Saints: Result & Stats

Swift Hesperange

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

The New Saints

8/1/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Swift Hesperange47%

×Draw23%

The New Saints30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swift HesperangeExpected goals in this matchThe New Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.36

Swift Hesperange

1.75

The New Saints

1.36

Swift Hesperange creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.40

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Swift Hesperange

2.00

The New Saints

1.40

allows per match

Swift Hesperange

1.33

The New Saints

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

The New Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

The New Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw

70%

Swift Hesperange or The New Saints

77%

Draw or The New Saints

53%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

25%

The New Saints wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

83%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

52%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

25%

The New Saints 1+ goals

74%

The New Saints 2+ goals

39%

The New Saints 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

61%

The New Saints (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

The New Saints away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.00 + The New Saints defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

The New Saints attack 1.40 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more

47%

level

23%

The New Saints scores more

30%

Swift Hesperange at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swift Hesperange vs The New Saints

Swift Hesperange beat The New Saints 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Luxembourg in Luxembourg.

Swift Hesperange vs The New Saints — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Swift Hesperange vs The New Saints