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The New Saints vs Plzen — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

The New Saints
The New Saints
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
8/5/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundCardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

The New Saints35%
×Draw28%
Plzen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The New Saints
1.15
Plzen
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

The New Saints
1.40
Plzen
1.56

allows per match

The New Saints
0.80
Plzen
0.89

finishing

The New Saints+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The New Saints ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

The New Saints or draw
63%
The New Saints or Plzen
72%
Draw or Plzen
65%

Winning margin

The New Saints wins by 2+
14%
Plzen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

The New Saints 1+ goals
68%
The New Saints 2+ goals
32%
The New Saints 3+ goals
11%
Plzen 1+ goals
69%
Plzen 2+ goals
33%
Plzen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

The New Saints (draw refunded)
49%
Plzen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The New Saints at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The New Saints attack 1.40 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Plzen attack 1.56 + The New Saints defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

The New Saints scores more
35%
level
28%
Plzen scores more
37%

Plzen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: The New Saints 4–2 Plzen

The New Saints beat Plzen 4-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.