Plzen 3–1 The New Saints: Result & Stats

Plzen

Pens

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

The New Saints

8/12/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundDoosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Plzen57%

×Draw24%

The New Saints19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchThe New Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.84

Plzen

1.67

The New Saints

0.84

Plzen creates 99% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.78

creates per match

1.56

0.11

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Plzen

1.78

The New Saints

1.56

allows per match

Plzen

0.11

The New Saints

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

The New Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

The New Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

81%

Plzen or The New Saints

76%

Draw or The New Saints

43%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

31%

The New Saints wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

81%

Plzen 2+ goals

50%

Plzen 3+ goals

23%

The New Saints 1+ goals

57%

The New Saints 2+ goals

21%

The New Saints 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

75%

The New Saints (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

The New Saints away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 1.78 + The New Saints defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

The New Saints attack 1.56 + Plzen defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plzen scores more

57%

level

24%

The New Saints scores more

19%

Plzen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff