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The Cove vs Pontian Eagles — South Australia State League 1 2021

The Cove
The Cove
FT
8 – 1
HT: 5 – 1
Pontian Eagles
Pontian Eagles
8/9/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Southern Soccer Facility

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

The Cove82%
×Draw12%
Pontian Eagles6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Cove
2.89
Pontian Eagles
0.66

The Cove creates 338% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

The Cove
2.05
Pontian Eagles
0.36

allows per match

The Cove
0.95
Pontian Eagles
3.73

finishing

The Cove+0.00on par
Pontian Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Cove ↓

Pontian Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

The Cove or draw
94%
The Cove or Pontian Eagles
88%
Draw or Pontian Eagles
18%

Winning margin

The Cove wins by 2+
62%
Pontian Eagles wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

The Cove 1+ goals
94%
The Cove 2+ goals
78%
The Cove 3+ goals
54%
Pontian Eagles 1+ goals
48%
Pontian Eagles 2+ goals
14%
Pontian Eagles 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

The Cove (draw refunded)
93%
Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Cove at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Pontian Eagles away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Cove attack 2.05 + Pontian Eagles defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.89

Pontian Eagles attack 0.36 + The Cove defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

The Cove scores more
82%
level
12%
Pontian Eagles scores more
6%

The Cove at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "The Cove will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: The Cove vs Pontian Eagles

The Cove beat Pontian Eagles 8-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Southern Soccer Facility in Adelaide.