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Pontian Eagles vs The Cove — South Australia State League 1 2021

Pontian Eagles
Pontian Eagles
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
The Cove
The Cove
5/17/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 10Yalumba Drive Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pontian Eagles33%
×Draw21%
The Cove46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontian Eagles
1.75
The Cove
2.08

The Cove creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Pontian Eagles
1.00
The Cove
1.25

allows per match

Pontian Eagles
2.91
The Cove
2.50

finishing

Pontian Eagles+0.00on par
The Cove+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontian Eagles ↓

The Cove →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Pontian Eagles or draw
54%
Pontian Eagles or The Cove
79%
Draw or The Cove
67%

Winning margin

Pontian Eagles wins by 2+
17%
The Cove wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Pontian Eagles 1+ goals
83%
Pontian Eagles 2+ goals
52%
Pontian Eagles 3+ goals
25%
The Cove 1+ goals
87%
The Cove 2+ goals
61%
The Cove 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)
42%
The Cove (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontian Eagles at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches

The Cove away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontian Eagles attack 1.00 + The Cove defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

The Cove attack 1.25 + Pontian Eagles defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pontian Eagles scores more
33%
level
21%
The Cove scores more
46%

The Cove at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "The Cove will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Pontian Eagles 0–2 The Cove

The Cove beat Pontian Eagles 2-0 in South Australia State League 1 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Yalumba Drive Reserve in Adelaide.