Thanh Hóa 1–1 Song Lam Nghe An: Result & Stats

Thanh Hóa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Song Lam Nghe An

4/12/2025

V.League 1 · Round 18Sân vận động Thanh Hóa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Thanh Hóa46%

×Draw26%

Song Lam Nghe An29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thanh HóaExpected goals in this matchSong Lam Nghe An

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.12

Thanh Hóa

1.49

Song Lam Nghe An

1.12

Thanh Hóa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 88 away

1.43

creates per match

0.90

1.34

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Thanh Hóa

1.43

Song Lam Nghe An

0.90

allows per match

Thanh Hóa

1.34

Song Lam Nghe An

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thanh Hóa ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Thanh Hóa or draw

71%

Thanh Hóa or Song Lam Nghe An

74%

Draw or Song Lam Nghe An

54%

Winning margin

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+

23%

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals

77%

Thanh Hóa 2+ goals

44%

Thanh Hóa 3+ goals

19%

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals

67%

Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals

31%

Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)

62%

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thanh Hóa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.34 · 92 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thanh Hóa attack 1.43 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Thanh Hóa scores more

46%

level

26%

Song Lam Nghe An scores more

29%

Thanh Hóa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Thanh Hóa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff