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Song Lam Nghe An vs Thanh Hóa — V.League 1 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóa
6/15/2024V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 23Sân vận động Vinh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An44%
×Draw28%
Thanh Hóa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.30
Thanh Hóa
0.96

Song Lam Nghe An creates 35% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 86 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.15
Thanh Hóa
0.98

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
0.93
Thanh Hóa
1.45

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Thanh Hóa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
72%
Song Lam Nghe An or Thanh Hóa
72%
Draw or Thanh Hóa
56%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
20%
Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
73%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
37%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
14%
Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
62%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
25%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
62%
Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Thanh Hóa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.15 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Thanh Hóa attack 0.98 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
44%
level
28%
Thanh Hóa scores more
28%

Song Lam Nghe An at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Song Lam Nghe An 0–1 Thanh Hóa

Thanh Hóa beat Song Lam Nghe An 1-0 in V.League 1 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.