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Thanh Hóa vs Sai Gon — V.League 1 2019

Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sai Gon
Sai Gon
5/24/2019V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 11Sân vận động Thanh Hóa (Thanh Hóa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Thanh Hóa47%
×Draw24%
Sai Gon29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thanh Hóa
1.65
Sai Gon
1.23

Thanh Hóa creates 34% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 42 away

creates per match

Thanh Hóa
1.43
Sai Gon
1.12

allows per match

Thanh Hóa
1.34
Sai Gon
1.86

finishing

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par
Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thanh Hóa ↓

Sai Gon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Thanh Hóa or draw
71%
Thanh Hóa or Sai Gon
76%
Draw or Sai Gon
53%

Winning margin

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
25%
Sai Gon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
81%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
49%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
23%
Sai Gon 1+ goals
71%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
35%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
62%
Sai Gon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thanh Hóa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.34 · 92 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thanh Hóa attack 1.43 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Thanh Hóa scores more
47%
level
24%
Sai Gon scores more
29%

Thanh Hóa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Thanh Hóa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thanh Hóa vs Sai Gon

Thanh Hóa beat Sai Gon 2-1 in V.League 1 on May 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thanh Hóa (Thanh Hóa).