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Sai Gon vs Thanh Hóa — V.League 1 2019

Sai Gon
Sai Gon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóa
8/24/2019V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 22Sân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sai Gon47%
×Draw27%
Thanh Hóa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sai Gon
1.38
Thanh Hóa
0.96

Sai Gon creates 44% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sai Gon
1.30
Thanh Hóa
0.98

allows per match

Sai Gon
0.93
Thanh Hóa
1.45

finishing

Sai Gon+0.00on par
Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sai Gon ↓

Thanh Hóa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sai Gon or draw
74%
Sai Gon or Thanh Hóa
73%
Draw or Thanh Hóa
53%

Winning margin

Sai Gon wins by 2+
22%
Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sai Gon 1+ goals
75%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
40%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
16%
Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
62%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
25%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sai Gon (draw refunded)
64%
Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sai Gon at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Thanh Hóa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sai Gon attack 1.30 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Thanh Hóa attack 0.98 + Sai Gon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sai Gon scores more
47%
level
27%
Thanh Hóa scores more
26%

Sai Gon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Sai Gon 2–0 Thanh Hóa

Sai Gon beat Thanh Hóa 2-0 in V.League 1 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City)).