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Thanh Hóa vs Phu Dong — Cup 2019

Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Phu Dong
Phu Dong
7/10/2023CupCup · Quarter-finalsSân vận động Thanh Hóa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Thanh Hóa56%
×Draw22%
Phu Dong22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thanh Hóa
1.98
Phu Dong
1.15

Thanh Hóa creates 72% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Thanh Hóa
2.20
Phu Dong
1.50

allows per match

Thanh Hóa
0.80
Phu Dong
1.75

finishing

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par
Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thanh Hóa ↓

Phu Dong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Thanh Hóa or draw
78%
Thanh Hóa or Phu Dong
78%
Draw or Phu Dong
44%

Winning margin

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
33%
Phu Dong wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
86%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
59%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
31%
Phu Dong 1+ goals
68%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
32%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
72%
Phu Dong (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thanh Hóa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thanh Hóa attack 2.20 + Phu Dong defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

Phu Dong attack 1.50 + Thanh Hóa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Thanh Hóa scores more
56%
level
22%
Phu Dong scores more
22%

Thanh Hóa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Thanh Hóa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Thanh Hóa 1–0 Phu Dong

Thanh Hóa beat Phu Dong 1-0 in Cup on July 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thanh Hóa in Thanh Hóa.