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Phu Dong vs Thanh Hóa — V.League 1 2019

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóa
8/23/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 2Ninh Binh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Phu Dong53%
×Draw25%
Thanh Hóa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
1.61
Thanh Hóa
0.95

Phu Dong creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.77
Thanh Hóa
0.98

allows per match

Phu Dong
0.92
Thanh Hóa
1.45

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Thanh Hóa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
78%
Phu Dong or Thanh Hóa
75%
Draw or Thanh Hóa
47%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
28%
Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
80%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
48%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
22%
Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
61%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
25%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
70%
Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Thanh Hóa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.77 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Thanh Hóa attack 0.98 + Phu Dong defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Phu Dong scores more
53%
level
25%
Thanh Hóa scores more
22%

Phu Dong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Phu Dong 4–0 Thanh Hóa

Phu Dong beat Thanh Hóa 4-0 in V.League 1 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Ninh Binh Stadium in Ninh Binh.