Thanh Hóa vs Công An Nhân Dân — V.League 1 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Thanh Hóa24%
Công An Nhân Dân50%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Công An Nhân Dân creates 57% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Thanh Hóa ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Thanh Hóa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches
Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Thanh Hóa attack 1.21 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99
Công An Nhân Dân attack 1.85 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Công An Nhân Dân at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Nam Dinh
Ha NoiCông An Nhân Dân
Viettel
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hai Phong
Binh DuongThanh Hóa
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Ho Chi Minh City
Quang Nam
Song Lam Nghe An
Da Nang
Binh DinhIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Thanh Hóa host Công An Nhân Dân on Sunday, 31 March 2024 at 11:00. The match is part of the V.League 1 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Thanh Hóa vs Công An Nhân Dân
Công An Nhân Dân beat Thanh Hóa 2-0 in V.League 1 on March 31, 2024.
Goals: Jeferson Elías (67'), Phan Văn Đức (90+5').
The match was played at Sân vận động Thanh Hóa in Thanh Hóa.