Công An Nhân Dân vs Thanh Hóa — V.League 1 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
Công An Nhân Dân57%
Thanh Hóa19%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Công An Nhân Dân creates 92% more chances
Season form · 39 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Công An Nhân Dân ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Công An Nhân Dân at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches
Thanh Hóa away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.18 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77
Thanh Hóa attack 0.97 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Công An Nhân Dân at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Nam Dinh
Binh Dinh
Ha Noi
Ho Chi Minh City
ViettelCông An Nhân Dân
Hai PhongThanh Hóa
Binh Duong
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Quang Nam
Song Lam Nghe An
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Sanna Khanh HoaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Công An Nhân Dân host Thanh Hóa on Friday, 20 September 2024 at 12:15. The match is part of the V.League 1 2024/2025 season.
V.League 1: Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóa beat Công An Nhân Dân 1-0 in V.League 1 on September 20, 2024.
Goals: Yago (59').
The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hanoi.