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Thanh Hóa vs Binh Dinh — V.League 1 2019

Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
5/4/2024V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 16Sân vận động Thanh Hóa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Thanh Hóa39%
×Draw27%
Binh Dinh35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thanh Hóa
1.33
Binh Dinh
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 54 away

creates per match

Thanh Hóa
1.43
Binh Dinh
1.17

allows per match

Thanh Hóa
1.34
Binh Dinh
1.24

finishing

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par
Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thanh Hóa ↓

Binh Dinh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Thanh Hóa or draw
65%
Thanh Hóa or Binh Dinh
73%
Draw or Binh Dinh
61%

Winning margin

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
17%
Binh Dinh wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
74%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
38%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
15%
Binh Dinh 1+ goals
71%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
36%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
53%
Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thanh Hóa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.34 · 92 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thanh Hóa attack 1.43 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thanh Hóa scores more
39%
level
27%
Binh Dinh scores more
35%

Thanh Hóa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Thanh Hóa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Thanh Hóa 0–0 Binh Dinh

Thanh Hóa and Binh Dinh drew 0-0 in V.League 1 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thanh Hóa in Thanh Hóa.