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Binh Dinh vs Thanh Hóa — V.League 1 2019

Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóa
12/9/2023V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 5Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Binh Dinh45%
×Draw26%
Thanh Hóa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Dinh
1.43
Thanh Hóa
1.07

Binh Dinh creates 34% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 86 away

creates per match

Binh Dinh
1.41
Thanh Hóa
0.98

allows per match

Binh Dinh
1.17
Thanh Hóa
1.45

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par
Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Thanh Hóa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw
72%
Binh Dinh or Thanh Hóa
74%
Draw or Thanh Hóa
55%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+
22%
Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals
76%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
42%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
17%
Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
66%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
29%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
62%
Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Thanh Hóa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 1.41 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Thanh Hóa attack 0.98 + Binh Dinh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Binh Dinh scores more
45%
level
26%
Thanh Hóa scores more
28%

Binh Dinh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binh Dinh vs Thanh Hóa

Thanh Hóa beat Binh Dinh 3-2 in V.League 1 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Qui Nhơn in Qui Nhon.