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Thalgau vs Golling — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Thalgau
Thalgau
FT
2 – 1
Golling
Golling
8/31/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 5Sportplatz Thalgau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Thalgau54%
×Draw20%
Golling27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thalgau
2.43
Golling
1.70

Thalgau creates 43% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 56 away

creates per match

Thalgau
2.54
Golling
1.50

allows per match

Thalgau
1.90
Golling
2.32

finishing

Thalgau+0.00on par
Golling+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thalgau ↓

Golling →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Thalgau or draw
73%
Thalgau or Golling
80%
Draw or Golling
46%

Winning margin

Thalgau wins by 2+
33%
Golling wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Thalgau 1+ goals
91%
Thalgau 2+ goals
69%
Thalgau 3+ goals
43%
Golling 1+ goals
82%
Golling 2+ goals
51%
Golling 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Thalgau (draw refunded)
67%
Golling (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thalgau at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.90 · 82 matches

Golling away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thalgau attack 2.54 + Golling defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.43

Golling attack 1.50 + Thalgau defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Thalgau scores more
54%
level
20%
Golling scores more
27%

Thalgau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Thalgau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thalgau vs Golling

Thalgau beat Golling 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Thalgau in Thalgau.