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Golling vs Thalgau — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Golling
Golling
FT
4 – 2
Thalgau
Thalgau
4/23/2022Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 19Sportplatz Golling

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Golling48%
×Draw20%
Thalgau32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golling
2.24
Thalgau
1.81

Golling creates 24% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 84 away

creates per match

Golling
2.20
Thalgau
1.67

allows per match

Golling
1.96
Thalgau
2.27

finishing

Golling+0.00on par
Thalgau+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golling ↓

Thalgau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Golling or draw
68%
Golling or Thalgau
80%
Draw or Thalgau
52%

Winning margin

Golling wins by 2+
28%
Thalgau wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Golling 1+ goals
89%
Golling 2+ goals
65%
Golling 3+ goals
38%
Thalgau 1+ goals
84%
Thalgau 2+ goals
54%
Thalgau 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Golling (draw refunded)
60%
Thalgau (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golling at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.96 · 54 matches

Thalgau away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.27 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golling attack 2.20 + Thalgau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.24

Thalgau attack 1.67 + Golling defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Golling scores more
48%
level
20%
Thalgau scores more
32%

Golling at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Golling will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Golling 4–2 Thalgau

Golling beat Thalgau 4-2 in Landesliga - Salzburg on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Golling in Golling.