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Thalgau vs Bergheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Thalgau
Thalgau
FT
2 – 7
Bergheim
Bergheim
10/23/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 12Sportplatz Thalgau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Thalgau57%
×Draw18%
Bergheim25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thalgau
2.65
Bergheim
1.73

Thalgau creates 53% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Thalgau
2.54
Bergheim
1.57

allows per match

Thalgau
1.90
Bergheim
2.76

finishing

Thalgau+0.00on par
Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thalgau ↓

Bergheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Thalgau or draw
75%
Thalgau or Bergheim
82%
Draw or Bergheim
43%

Winning margin

Thalgau wins by 2+
37%
Bergheim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Thalgau 1+ goals
93%
Thalgau 2+ goals
74%
Thalgau 3+ goals
48%
Bergheim 1+ goals
82%
Bergheim 2+ goals
52%
Bergheim 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Thalgau (draw refunded)
70%
Bergheim (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thalgau at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.90 · 82 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thalgau attack 2.54 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.65

Bergheim attack 1.57 + Thalgau defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Thalgau scores more
57%
level
18%
Bergheim scores more
25%

Thalgau at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Thalgau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Thalgau 2–7 Bergheim

Bergheim beat Thalgau 7-2 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Thalgau in Thalgau.