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Bergheim vs Thalgau — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bergheim
Bergheim
FT
0 – 2
Thalgau
Thalgau
6/3/2022Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 25Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bergheim39%
×Draw21%
Thalgau40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergheim
2.00
Thalgau
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 84 away

creates per match

Bergheim
1.73
Thalgau
1.67

allows per match

Bergheim
2.42
Thalgau
2.27

finishing

Bergheim+0.00on par
Thalgau+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim ↓

Thalgau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Bergheim or draw
60%
Bergheim or Thalgau
79%
Draw or Thalgau
61%

Winning margin

Bergheim wins by 2+
21%
Thalgau wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bergheim 1+ goals
86%
Bergheim 2+ goals
59%
Bergheim 3+ goals
32%
Thalgau 1+ goals
87%
Thalgau 2+ goals
60%
Thalgau 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bergheim (draw refunded)
49%
Thalgau (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.42 · 40 matches

Thalgau away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.27 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim attack 1.73 + Thalgau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.00

Thalgau attack 1.67 + Bergheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bergheim scores more
39%
level
21%
Thalgau scores more
40%

Thalgau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thalgau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Bergheim 0–2 Thalgau

Thalgau beat Bergheim 2-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Bergheim in Bergheim.