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Thailand U19 vs Singapore U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Thailand U19
Thailand U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Singapore U19
Singapore U19
P. Laohawiwat 86'
P. Phatthaphon 80'
S. Graf 26'
7/19/2024AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Stadion Gelora 10 November

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Thailand U1975%
×Draw16%
Singapore U199%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thailand U19
2.31
Singapore U19
0.63

Thailand U19 creates 267% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Thailand U19
2.63
Singapore U19
0.50

allows per match

Thailand U19
0.75
Singapore U19
2.00

finishing

Thailand U19+0.00on par
Singapore U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand U19 ↓

Singapore U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Thailand U19 or draw
91%
Thailand U19 or Singapore U19
84%
Draw or Singapore U19
25%

Winning margin

Thailand U19 wins by 2+
51%
Singapore U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Thailand U19 1+ goals
90%
Thailand U19 2+ goals
67%
Thailand U19 3+ goals
40%
Singapore U19 1+ goals
47%
Singapore U19 2+ goals
13%
Singapore U19 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Thailand U19 (draw refunded)
90%
Singapore U19 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand U19 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Singapore U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand U19 attack 2.63 + Singapore U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Singapore U19 attack 0.50 + Thailand U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Thailand U19 scores more
75%
level
16%
Singapore U19 scores more
9%

Thailand U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Thailand U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
S. Graf
80'
P. Phatthaphon
86'
P. Laohawiwat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thailand U19 vs Singapore U19

Thailand U19 beat Singapore U19 2-1 in AFF U19 Championship on July 19, 2024.

Goals: S. Graf (26'), P. Phatthaphon (80'), P. Laohawiwat (86').

The match was played at Stadion Gelora 10 November in Surabaya.