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Thai Honda FC vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
FT
2 – 0
Navy FC
Navy FC
7/7/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Thai Honda FC56%
×Draw23%
Navy FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thai Honda FC
1.81
Navy FC
1.02

Thai Honda FC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 51 away

creates per match

Thai Honda FC
1.55
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Thai Honda FC
1.03
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Thai Honda FC+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thai Honda FC ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Thai Honda FC or draw
79%
Thai Honda FC or Navy FC
77%
Draw or Navy FC
44%

Winning margin

Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
32%
Navy FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
84%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
54%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
27%
Navy FC 1+ goals
64%
Navy FC 2+ goals
27%
Navy FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
72%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thai Honda FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thai Honda FC attack 1.55 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Thai Honda FC scores more
56%
level
23%
Navy FC scores more
21%

Thai Honda FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Thai Honda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thai Honda FC vs Navy FC

Thai Honda FC beat Navy FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium (Bangkok).