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Navy FC vs Thai Honda FC — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
2 – 1
Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
2/23/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 3Sattahip Stadium (Sattahip)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Navy FC37%
×Draw26%
Thai Honda FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.33
Thai Honda FC
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Thai Honda FC
1.26

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Thai Honda FC
1.53

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Thai Honda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
64%
Navy FC or Thai Honda FC
74%
Draw or Thai Honda FC
63%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
17%
Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
74%
Navy FC 2+ goals
38%
Navy FC 3+ goals
15%
Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
73%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
38%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
51%
Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Thai Honda FC attack 1.26 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Navy FC scores more
37%
level
26%
Thai Honda FC scores more
36%

Navy FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navy FC vs Thai Honda FC

Navy FC beat Thai Honda FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium (Sattahip).