TF Exponential 1–2 Sankara Nationals

TF Exponential

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sankara Nationals

11/9/2025

Division One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

TF Exponential50%

×Draw26%

Sankara Nationals25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TF ExponentialExpected goals in this matchSankara Nationals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

TF Exponential

1.54

Sankara Nationals

1.00

TF Exponential creates 54% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

TF Exponential

1.07

Sankara Nationals

1.00

allows per match

TF Exponential

1.00

Sankara Nationals

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TF Exponential+0.00on par

Sankara Nationals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TF Exponential ↓

Sankara Nationals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

TF Exponential or draw

75%

TF Exponential or Sankara Nationals

74%

Draw or Sankara Nationals

50%

Winning margin

TF Exponential wins by 2+

26%

Sankara Nationals wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

TF Exponential 1+ goals

79%

TF Exponential 2+ goals

45%

TF Exponential 3+ goals

20%

Sankara Nationals 1+ goals

63%

Sankara Nationals 2+ goals

26%

Sankara Nationals 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

TF Exponential (draw refunded)

67%

Sankara Nationals (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TF Exponential at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Sankara Nationals away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TF Exponential attack 1.07 + Sankara Nationals defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sankara Nationals attack 1.00 + TF Exponential defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TF Exponential scores more

50%

level

26%

Sankara Nationals scores more

25%

TF Exponential at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TF Exponential will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff