Sankara Nationals 2–0 TF Exponential

Sankara Nationals

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TF Exponential

5/2/2026

Division One League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sankara Nationals67%

×Draw22%

TF Exponential11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sankara NationalsExpected goals in this matchTF Exponential

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.57

Sankara Nationals

1.78

TF Exponential

0.57

Sankara Nationals creates 212% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.21

creates per match

0.64

0.50

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Sankara Nationals

1.21

TF Exponential

0.64

allows per match

Sankara Nationals

0.50

TF Exponential

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sankara Nationals+0.00on par

TF Exponential+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sankara Nationals ↓

TF Exponential →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sankara Nationals or draw

89%

Sankara Nationals or TF Exponential

78%

Draw or TF Exponential

33%

Winning margin

Sankara Nationals wins by 2+

39%

TF Exponential wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sankara Nationals 1+ goals

83%

Sankara Nationals 2+ goals

53%

Sankara Nationals 3+ goals

26%

TF Exponential 1+ goals

43%

TF Exponential 2+ goals

11%

TF Exponential 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sankara Nationals (draw refunded)

86%

TF Exponential (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sankara Nationals at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

TF Exponential away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sankara Nationals attack 1.21 + TF Exponential defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.78

TF Exponential attack 0.64 + Sankara Nationals defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sankara Nationals scores more

67%

level

22%

TF Exponential scores more

11%

Sankara Nationals at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sankara Nationals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff