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Textil Escudo vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
CANC
00:00
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Textil Escudo51%
×Draw25%
Ribamontán al Mar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Textil Escudo
1.59
Ribamontán al Mar
0.99

Textil Escudo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

creates per match

Textil Escudo
1.19
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Textil Escudo
1.03
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw
76%
Textil Escudo or Ribamontán al Mar
75%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
49%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+
27%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals
80%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
47%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
21%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
63%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
26%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
68%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Textil Escudo scores more
51%
level
25%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
24%

Textil Escudo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Textil Escudo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Textil Escudo face Ribamontán al Mar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 returns with Textil Escudo hosting Ribamontán al Mar. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Textil Escudo host Ribamontán al Mar at Estadio Juan María Parés.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.