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Ribamontán al Mar vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
10/26/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar36%
×Draw27%
Textil Escudo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribamontán al Mar
1.27
Textil Escudo
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar
0.63
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar
1.73
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw
63%
Ribamontán al Mar or Textil Escudo
73%
Draw or Textil Escudo
64%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
16%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
72%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
36%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
14%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
73%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
37%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
49%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.27

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more
36%
level
27%
Textil Escudo scores more
37%

Textil Escudo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Textil Escudo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ribamontán al Mar vs Textil Escudo

Ribamontán al Mar beat Textil Escudo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Baceñuela in Galizano, Ribamontán al Mar.