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Textil Escudo vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
CANC
00:00
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 35Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Textil Escudo29%
×Draw28%
Racing Santander II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Textil Escudo
1.02
Racing Santander II
1.29

Racing Santander II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 27 away

creates per match

Textil Escudo
1.19
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Textil Escudo
1.03
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw
57%
Textil Escudo or Racing Santander II
72%
Draw or Racing Santander II
71%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+
11%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals
64%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
27%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
8%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
72%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
37%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
41%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Textil Escudo scores more
29%
level
28%
Racing Santander II scores more
43%

Racing Santander II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Textil Escudo vs Racing Santander II — Match Preview

Textil Escudo face Racing Santander II on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Textil Escudo host Racing Santander II at Estadio Juan María Parés.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.